GENERATING AND USING ELICITED EVIDENCE FOR COST EFFECTIVENESS MODELS

Overview: The course aims to guide the participant through the process of designing and conducting an expert elicitation task to inform a cost-effectiveness model, used to inform a HTA process. In addition it will look at methods to synthesise experts’ beliefs and how to incorporate elicited evidence into a decision model. This will be achieved through a combination of presentations, discussions and practical exercises. Applied examples are used throughout.

Background: Many decision making bodies use a rigorous health technology assessment (HTA) process to appraise technologies. Evidence to inform an economic assessment is often drawn from a variety of sources including the use of expert opinion. An elicitation method links experts’ beliefs to an expression of these in a statistical form. Formal elicitation methods are gaining momentum in HTA but still there are few practical applications. There is a time burden in designing and conducting formal elicitation. However, elicited evidence may be extremely valuable, particularly where there is sparse data, significant uncertainties or bias.

Format Requirements: The course will begin with a 1-hour overview of concepts and methods. The subsequent two hours will be spent on individual and group work, problem solving and discussion of real world examples. Participants will work through structured examples using their own computers. Participants should be confident using basic Excel functions and have good quantitative skills. Material for the course will be provided electronically including step-by-step guidance on developing an elicitation exercise for HTA. The example elicitation will be provided electronically for future reference. The course will be designed for the intermediate participant - i.e. researchers having some training and experience with quantitative analysis, HTA and decision modelling.

Description and Objectives: The course aims to guide the participant through the process of designing and conducting an elicitation task to inform a HTA process or decision model. In addition it will look at methods to synthesise experts’ beliefs and how to incorporate elicited evidence into a decision model. This will be achieved through a combination of presentations, discussions and practical exercises.

Specifically the objectives of the course are:

• To introduce the concepts of elicitation

• To describe its potential uses within a HTA process

• To describe the steps in designing, conducting and analysing the results of an elicitation exercise.

• Offer ‘real world’ examples

• Provide an opportunity for ‘hands on’ experience of an elicitation

• To discuss potential caveats of elicitation

• To describe methods to minimise methodology and expert bias