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Aim Genetic programming is a search method that can be used to solve complex associations between large numbers of variables. It has been used for e.g. myoelectrical signal recognition, but its value for medical prediction as in diagnostic and prognostic settings, has not been documented. We compared genetic programming and the commonly used logistic regression technique in the development of a prediction model using empirical data from a study on diagnosis of pulmonary embolism.
Methods Using part (67%) of the data, we developed and internally validated (using bootstrapping techniques) a diagnostic prediction model by genetic programming and by logistic regression, and compared both on their predictive ability in the remaining data (validation set).
Results In the validation set, the area under the ROC curve of the genetic programming model was significantly larger (0.73; 95%CI: 0.64-0.82) than that of the logistic regression model (0.68; 0.59-0.77). The calibration of both models was similar, indicating similar amount of overoptimism.
Conclusions Although the interpretation of a genetic programming model is less intuitive and this is the first empirical study quantifying its value for medical prediction, genetic programming seems a promising technique to develop prediction rules for diagnostic and prognostic purposes.
See more of Poster Session - Utility Theory; Health Economics; Patient & Physician Preferences; Simulation; Technology Assessment
See more of The 26th Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (October 17-20, 2004)