This presentation is part of: Poster Session - Public Health; Methodological Advances
HEALTH AND ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF A PROPOSED CALIFORNIA CIGARETTE EXCISE TAX INCREASE
Michael K Ong, MD, PhD1, Benjamin Alamar, PhD2, and Stanton A. Glantz, PhD2. (1) VA Palo Alto and Stanford University, Medicine, Stanford, CA, (2) University of California, San Francisco, Medicine, San Francisco, CA
Purpose: To determine the health and economic effects of a new cigarette excise tax increase for the state of California. Methods: We used a simulation model to estimate the effects of an additional tax increase on smoking behavior and consumption, and the effect of the tobacco consumption reduction on state and local tax revenues. We also estimate the one-year and long-term health benefits of the resultant tobacco consumption reduction in terms of prevented conditions and avoided health care costs. We also investigate the effect of investing part of the excise tax increase revenue into the state tobacco control program. Results: A $1.50 cigarette excise tax increase would result in 360,000 new quitters and increase state tax revenues by $1.6 billion and local tax revenues by $78 million. In one year, this tax increase would prevent 300 heart attacks, 150 strokes, 250 low birthweight births, 300 new pediatric asthma cases, and also save $19 million in health care expenditures. Long term, this tax increase would annually prevent 4,000 smoking-related deaths and also save $1.5 billion in health care expenditures. Designating 20 cents of this tax increase for the state tobacco control program would provide an additional $200 million in the first year to the tobacco control program but reduce the increases in state and local tax revenues to $1.1 billion and $64 million, respectively. However, this investment would create an additional 275,000 new quitters. These additional quitters would further prevent in one year 200 heart attacks, 100 strokes, 200 low birthweight births, 250 new pediatric asthma cases, and further save $14 million in health care expenditures. Long term, these additional quitters would further annually prevent 3,000 smoking-related deaths and $1.1 billion in health care expenditures. Conclusions: Increasing the cigarette excise tax in California by $1.50 would significantly increase state and local revenues, increase the state’s health, and reduce health care expenditures. Designating 20 cents of the cigarette excise tax increase for the state tobacco control program would slightly reduce state and local revenues, but produce more quitters and further increase health benefits and health care cost savings.
