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We used a Markov model to estimate costs, quality of life, and survival associated with a voluntary HIV screening program compared to no screening in Russia. We modeled a cohort of 15-49 year olds demographically similar to Russia's population, with an average age of 32.5. HIV prevalence in the base case was 1.1%, with two thirds of HIV cases undiagnosed. Our base case assumed 70% of those with a positive HIV test would enter care and receive appropriate treatment, as a best case scenario. We included costs of testing, counseling, follow up, and treatment. The annual cost of HAART was estimated to be $1700 for medications plus $600 for social support services. We measured lifetime health care costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, discounted by 3% annually.
Once per lifetime HIV screening increased life expectancy by 1.80 QALYs for infected individuals. For the entire screened population, life expectancy increased by 3.2 quality-adjusted days at an estimated incremental cost of $68, yielding a cost-effectiveness ratio of $7660/QALY gained. When the annual cost of HAART was decreased to $1200, the cost-effectiveness ratio was $5040/QALY gained. In a more realistic scenario in which only 10% of infected individuals were treated, the cost-effectiveness ratio of screening increased to $8070/QALY gained. When prevalence of the screened population was lowered to 0.1%, the cost-effectiveness ratio worsened to $9320/QALY gained; in a higher prevalence scenario of 30%, the ratio decreased modestly to $7400/QALY gained. These analyses do not include the potential public health benefits of reduced transmission due to behavior change and treatment; incorporation of these benefits would yield more favorable cost-effectiveness ratios.
Our findings suggest that once per lifetime HIV screening in Russia is cost-effective by the World Health Organization's cost-effectiveness guidelines. To improve the cost-effectiveness of screening, efforts should focus on reducing costs of HAART, ensuring that HIV-infected individuals receive treatment, and preferential screening of high-risk groups.
See more of Oral Concurrent Session C - Public Health
See more of The 27th Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (October 21-24, 2005)