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Sunday, 23 October 2005
17

MODELLING COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF PREVENTION OF GLUCOCORTICOID-INDUCED OSTEOPOROSIS; ‘HARD' PROXY RCT VS CLINICAL OUTCOME META-ANALYSES

Ron NJ De Nijs1, E. Buskens1, Chris ED De Laet2, Hans WG Jacobs1, and Hans WJ Bijlsma on behalf of the STOP study group1. (1) University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands, (2) Scientific Institute of Public Health, Brussels, Belgium

Purpose: Oral glucocorticoids (GCs) are associated with increased fracture risk. Alendronate is a potent bone resorption inhibitor. Alfacalcidol stimulates bone formation. The study was performed to determine the cost-effectiveness of prevention of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIOP). Methods: Cost-effectiveness analysis with a ‘life-time' time horizon and 4% discount rate for costs and effects using a Markov model to compare prevention of GIOP with alendronate and alfacalcidol to no treatment. Results of lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) of a randomized placebo-controlled trial (RCT) in patients starting oral GCs in a daily dosage of 7.5 mg prednisone equivalent or higher were used predict fractures and estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (iCER). Also, literature based pooled estimates of the relative risk (RR) of vertebral fractures after alendronate and alfacalcidol were used to predict fractures. A threshold of € 30.000 per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was assumed to be acceptable. Results. Mean age in the RCT was 60 years. In women, using BMD trial data, iCERs for alendronate and alfacalcidol were of € 94.261 and € 144.000 per QALY gained, respectively. With the pooled RRs the iCERs were € 58.111 and € 63.115, respectively. In sensitivity analysis applying pooled RRs of vertebral fractures to all types of fractures, resulted in iCERs of € 29.389 and € 26.457 per QALY gained. For alendronate and BMD as predictor of fractures the € 30.000 threshold was reached at a price of € 201 per year in women and at € 78 in men. For alfacalcidol the threshold price was € 103 in women and € 40 in men. Using pooled RRs of vertebral fractures the threshold price of alendronate was € 300 per year in women and € 106 in men. For alfacalcidol the prices were € 218 in women and € 72 in men. Conclusions. Overall, alendronate and alfacalcidol do not appear to be cost-effective in prevention of GIOP in patients with a mean age of 60 years. Only if the costs of treatment would drop considerably could prevention become cost-effective. Moreover, model assumptions regarding the association between BMD and fracture incidence had considerable (negative) impact in the cost-effectiveness.

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See more of The 27th Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (October 21-24, 2005)