Methods: Utilizing inputs from published literature, a model was constructed. Step 1 calculated total number of potential EPO-eligible patients in US ICUs annually (defined as all adult ICU patients who are alive and at risk of TF on day 7 or later4). In step 2, the number of packed red blood cell (pRBC) units avoided in the EPO arm of the RCT3 was extrapolated to the population in all US ICUs annually. Step 3 quantified excess complications (adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and cardiovascular (CV) complication rates were higher in patients who experienced more transfusions in the ICU2; this excess of complications was defined as the TSACs) and the number of pRBC units transfused per one TSAC based on the randomized transfusion threshold trial data.2 Lastly, step 4 translated EPO-related avoidance of pRBC units to a reduction in TSACs.
Results: 1,624 additional units transfused resulted in 49 incremental incident cases of TSACs or 33 units per TSAC. The base-case analysis showed that 10,315 TSACs could potentially be avoided annually in US ICUs by using EPO in selected ICU patients. Sensitivity analyses based on ranges of inputs yielded the lower and upper bound estimates of 1,783 and 37,905 TSACs avoided, respectively.
Conclusions: Based on this model, judicious use of EPO in selected ICU patients in the US may result in a reduction in TSACs.
1Corwin CCM 2004; 2Hebert NEJM 1999; 3Corwin JAMA 2002; 4Millbrandt Crit Care 2006
Disclosure: Funded by Ortho Biotech Clinical Affairs, LLC