Purpose:
Methods: We develop an individual-based Markov state transition
model, Progression and Transmission of HIV/AIDS (PATH), to simulate HIV disease
progression and treatment for 10,000 persons diagnosed in IP and ED settings.
We use quarterly changes in CD4 count and viral RNA level to map disease
progression. We additionally include published survival estimates based on the
age of the patient and CD4 count at the initiation of antiretroviral therapy.
We use program characteristics from each setting such as testing costs, median
CD4 count at diagnosis, and prevalence of HIV infection, as well as the costs
of treating HIV infection, to estimate the incremental cost per
quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved for a person diagnosed with HIV.
Results: Diagnosing HIV infection in the ED versus IP setting led to
an additional 2.3 QALYs at a cost of $16,549 per QALY. In sensitivity analysis,
with an ED prevalence of 0.1%, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio
increased to $22,644 per QALY. Factors with the most effect on quality-adjusted
life expectancy include age at infection, duration of antiretroviral therapy,
and viral load set-point.
Conclusions: Routine ED screening results in increased QALYs compared to
IP testing and falls
within the standards of cost-effectiveness. Hospitals that have
not already done so should consider routine HIV screening of persons in the ED.
Cost effectiveness
analysis of testing in different settings*
CD4 count at diagnosis (cells/mL) Discounted costs1 ($) Discounted life expectancy1 Discounted QALYs1 Incremental Cost ($) Incremental QALY ICER ($/QALY) IP (14.6%) 24 245,498 (241,530-249,466) 16.3 (16.1-16.5) 14 (13.9-14.2) ED (1%) 276 283,562 (280,108-287,015) 18.8 (18.7-19.0) 16.3 (16.1-16.4) 38,064 2.3 16,549 * 3% discount rate
1 Figures
in parentheses are 95% confidence intervals
Setting (Prevalence)
See more of: 30th Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (October 19-22, 2008)