Purpose: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are an important source of excess calories among U.S. adults and have been linked to both obesity and diabetes. Previous studies predicted that a one-penny-per ounce excise tax on these beverages would reduce consumption by 10-20%.This study aims to quantify the potential impact of such tax on diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and medical costs.
Method: We predicted the downward shift in SSB consumption from the baseline levels reported in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2006 as a result of the tax, as well as the associated reduction in energy intake (adjusted for compensatory changes in other beverages), body weight, and risk of diabetes. We subsequently used the Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model, a Markov cohort simulation model, to project the downstream burden that could be avoided from such tax scenario, quantified by the number of CHD and stroke events avoided and associated medical costs saved among US adults 25-64 years of age over 10 years.
Result: We predicted a reduction in average weight by 0.6-1.1 lbs and mean BMI by 0.2-0.4 kg/m2 as a result of 10-20% reduction in SSB consumption and a net daily energy reduction of 6-12 kcal/day per person. The projected reduction was greater in persons aged <45 years and in men, mostly due to their higher baseline SSB consumption. Over the course of 10 years, this downward shift in consumption and BMI can potentially result in 1.9-3.2 million fewer adults who are obese, 1.5-2.5 million fewer type II diabetes person-years, averting 114,000-223,000 cases of CHD events and 10,000-20,000 fewer cases of stroke, and saving $78-129 billion (in 2010 dollars, discounted by 3% annually) in medical expenditure from cardiovascular disease and diabetes treatment.
Conclusion: In addition to generating approximately $15 billion a year in revenue, taxes on sweetened beverages would potentially reduce the health and economic burden of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases among U.S. adults.