Method: A Markov model tracked health utility and costs for a hypothetical 65-year-old cohort followed over a 10-year time horizon under six care strategies: conservative care (C) and five surgical strategies defined by initial and up to two subsequent surgeries involving spacer (S), decompression (D), and/or fusion (F): S-D-D, S-D-F, S-F-F, D-D-F, and D-F-F. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) reported as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained included direct medical costs for surgery (initial S: $8,227; D: $5,925; F: $20,101). Medicare claims data were used to estimate costs, complication rates (S: 4.8%; D: 6.6%; F: 9.4%) and reoperation within 3 years (S: 20.1%; D: 10.8%; F: 14%) for each surgery. Utilities were derived from published studies (C:0.71; S: 0.82; D: 0.77; F:0.74). Reoperation rates after 3 years for D and F were obtained from the literature. Spacer failure beyond 3 years is uncertain and was evaluated through sensitivity analyses. In the base-case, the spacer failure rate was held constant for years 4-10 (cumulative: 47%). In subsequent analyses, the 10-year failure rate was increased either moderately (to 56%) or steeply (to 90%). Additionally, since utility following spacer surgery is rarely reported, we performed threshold analyses on post-spacer utility to determine when spacer surgery fails to be cost-effective either because it is dominated or has an ICER> $100,000.
Result: An initial spacer strategy (S-D-D) emerged as the most cost-effective ($14,400 per QALY gained) in base-case analyses. The ICER rose minimally ($16,800) when the failure rate was increased steeply. Spacer surgery remained cost-effective for post-spacer utilities ≥0.7695 in the base case and ≥0.773 under steeply increased failure.
Conclusion: Post-spacer health utilities in the literature to date exceed the identified thresholds, suggesting that interspinous spacer devices are reasonably cost-effective when implemented as a first surgical intervention for patients with spinal stenosis.
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