Candidate for the Lee B. Lusted Student Prize Competition
Method: An analytic Markov model was built to simulate short-term (within 1 year) and long-term (lifetime) outcomes and costs after a percutaneous procedure with BMS or one of the following: sirulimus(SES), paclitaxel(PES), everolimus(EES) or zotarolimus(ZES). It was considered a cohort of patients with symptomatic, single-vessel CAD that could undergo any of the five strategies. Model parameters were extracted from the medical literature and cost data were based on SUS reimbursement list. A CAD patient’s cohort in tertiary hospital was retrieved for outpatients’ costs and utilities. Primary endpoints were ICER for 1-year target vessel revascularization (TVR) avoided and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Economic values of one GDP/capita (US$11,875) for TVR avoided and three GDP/capita for QALY were used as willingness-to-pay thresholds.
Results: Main base-case and SA results are reported in table 1. In the probabilistic SA there was a 14% probability of EES being a cost-effective strategy.
Conclusion: As valued in the Brazilian market, DES is not a good value for money for QALY and for TVR avoided in comparison with BMS. DES should cost less than twice of BMS price, in order to be a cost-effective alternative.
Table 1. |
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|
|
x1,000 US$/QALY gained |
x1,000 US$/TVR avoided |
||||||
|
|
SES |
PES |
EES |
ZES |
SES |
PES |
EES |
ZES |
Base Case |
109 |
222 |
70 |
dominated |
22 |
34 |
22 |
34 |
|
Sensitivity Analisys |
|
|
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BMS cost(US$) |
500 |
140 |
279 |
89 |
dominated |
28 |
42 |
29 |
43 |
(1,017) |
1,500 |
80 |
168 |
51 |
dominated |
16 |
25 |
16 |
26 |
DES cost(US$) |
2,000 |
45 |
98 |
29 |
dominated |
9 |
15 |
9 |
15 |
(3,250) |
4,000 |
147 |
296 |
94 |
dominated |
29 |
45 |
31 |
46 |
TVR(%) |
7.5 |
177 |
426 |
94 |
dominated |
48 |
71 |
50 |
72 |
(15.7) |
30 |
51 |
99 |
39 |
210 |
10 |
18 |
11 |
18 |
ST*(%) |
0.0 |
169 |
246 |
144 |
2,750 |
22 |
34 |
22 |
34 |
(0.2) |
1.0 |
43 |
157 |
21 |
dominated |
22 |
34 |
23 |
35 |
* Stent Thrombosis |