BROADER ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF IMMUNIZATION AGAINST VACCINE-PREVENTABLE DISEASES IN 73 GAVI COUNTRIES FROM 2001-2020

Purpose: Utilizing the full income approach, this analysis estimates the economic and social benefits of vaccine introduction and scale-up in 73 low- and middle-income countries from 2001-2020 by examining the value of preventing mortality and morbidity.

Method: We obtained estimates of deaths and cases averted due to vaccination based on Gavi’s Strategic Demand Forecast (version 9) over the 2001-2020 time period from Gavi-commissioned modeling teams. Impact was assessed for ten antigens, including: Streptococcus pneumoniae (Sp), Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), hepatitis B, rotavirus, measles, meningococcal group A (NmA), yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, and rubella. The Value of Life Year (VLY) was estimated based on an annual per capita value of an increase in life expectancy, difference between life expectancy and average age of death from each vaccine preventable disease, and gross domestic product per capita. We also estimated the Value of Life Year with Disability (VLD) incorporating disability weights for long-term disabilities related to six antigens (Sp, Hib, Japanese encephalitis, measles, NmA, and rubella). All estimates were discounted at 3% and presented in 2010 USD. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out on key parameters using a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a 95% uncertainty range.

Result: We estimate that vaccine program implementation over the first 20 years of this century across 73 of the world’s poorest countries would result in a combined $1.13 trillion ($826 billion-$1.56 trillion) in economic gains due to death and long-term disability averted. At $1.11 trillion ($806 billion-$1.54 trillion), the VLY accounts for a substantial proportion (98%) of this total, with the remaining in $19.7 billion ($18 billion-$21.5 billion) attributable to long-term disability averted. Over half of the combined total broader value of vaccination across 2001-2020 is attributable to hepatitis B, Hib, and pneumococcal vaccines. 

Conclusion: The broader economic and social benefits associated with vaccine introduction and scale-up are substantial. This analysis captures the direct economic contributions people make as well as the social value of human life beyond labor force participation. Policy makers should gauge the full benefits of public health programs beyond direct health and economic gains reflecting the non-economic value that people place on living longer and healthier lives.