EFFECT OF CORN PRICE ON MEAT CONSUMPTION AND HEALTH OUTCOMES IN BALTIMORE CITY

Purpose:

We estimate the impact of fluctuations in the price of corn and meat, such as those that may result from taxation or from volatility in global food markets, on obesity and mortality in white and African-American men and women.

Method:

We construct and calibrate a microsimulation model that evaluates the 15-year impact of changes in meat price in an adult population that matches Baltimore City by age, gender, race, and body-mass index (BMI) distribution.  Individual food consumption changes are estimated according to elasticity of demand; that is, the estimated change in meat consumption, resulting from price changes.  BMI change following consumption change is estimated as individuals reach an equilibrium weight at a new level of calorie consumption.  Our principal outcomes include BMI (including obesity prevalence) and life-years gained or lost, by gender and race.

Result:

By 2030, population-wide obesity prevalence is expected to be lower following an increase in the price of meat relative to the status quo.  However, we estimate that only extreme price increases might be expected to produce an obesity prevalence in 15 years that is less than the current prevalence.  At any price change, white males, black males, and black females are expected to realize far greater reduction in obesity relative to the status quo than white females.  A 50% increase in meat price would be expected to reduce obesity prevalence by 7.5% relative to the status quo for white women, but by approximately 13% for the other subpopulations. Life expectancy gains relative to the status quo are also projected to differ by subpopulation, with black males being far less likely to benefit from an increase in meat prices than other groups in the population (shown in Figure 1), resulting from shifting a substantial portion of that population into low-BMI, high-mortality zones.

Figure 1. Increase in Life Years

Conclusion:

Volatility in the prices of corn and meat has considerable potential to affect population health differently by race and gender.  In designing interventions to protect the public from volatility in food price, or more broadly, in designing interventions that alter the price of foods to consumers, it is not sufficient to assess health effects based solely on the population as a whole, since differential effects across subpopulations may be substantial.