AM6
UNDERSTANDING SURVIVAL MODELLING WITH APPLICATION TO HTA
Sunday, October 23, 2016: 9:00 AM - 12:30 PM
Cypress 2, Second Floor (Westin Bayshore Vancouver)
Course Type: Half Day
Course Level: Beginner
Course Limit: 30
Background: Time-to-event (survival) analysis is an important element in many economic analyses of health care technologies. This is particularly true in oncology given the requirement to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes (i.e. extrapolate) beyond the follow-up typically observed in clinical trials. Cost-effectiveness estimates can be sensitive to the methods applied in modelling survival data. Recommendations for selecting a parametric survival model have been recently been published, following a review of extrapolation modelling in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) technology appraisals.
The purpose of this course is to provide participants with an understanding of the fundamentals of survival analysis and key issues to be considered when comparing alternative survival models for inclusion in cost-effectiveness analysis. This will include an understanding of differences between partitioned survival and Markov-based approaches.
Format Requirements: This is an introductory, rather than highly statistical short course, focussing on selecting and using survival models in HTA. Familiarity with survival analysis is not a prerequisite.
Description and Objectives:
The purpose of this course is to provide participants with an understanding of the fundamentals of survival analysis and key issues to be considered when comparing alternative survival models for inclusion in cost-effectiveness analysis. This will include an understanding of differences between partitioned survival and Markov-based approaches.
After completion of this course, participants will be able to:
- Appreciate the relationships between key time-to-event functions (i.e. hazard, cumulative hazard, survivor)
- Construct and interpret Kaplan-Meier survivor functions (95% confidence intervals)
- Contrast alternative parametric survivor models (goodness of fit and implications for extrapolation)
- Discuss differences between partitioned survival and Markov-based cost-effectiveness models
Course Faculty:
Andrew Briggs, DPhil
University of Glasgow
William R Lindsay Chair in Health Economics
Health Economics & Health Technology Assessment
Andrew holds the William R Lindsay Chair in Health Economics at the University of Glasgow. Previously, he held the position of Reader in Health Economics at the University of Oxford's Health Economics Research Centre (HERC). In addition, he spent the academic year 1999/2000 at the Centre for Evaluation of Medicines (CEM), at McMaster University and he remains a research associate of both CEM and HERC.
Andrew has expertise in all areas of health economic evaluation -- he has published well over 100 articles in the peer-reviewed literature. He has particularly focused on statistical methods for cost-effectiveness analysis. This includes statistical methods for estimation of parameters for cost-effectiveness models as well as statistical analysis of cost-effectiveness alongside clinical trials. He also has a more general interest in epidemiological methods, in particular the use of prognostic scoring methods for predicting health outcomes and the relationship with heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness.
Andrew recently took a leadership role as co-chair of the Joint Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM) and International Society for PharamacoEconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Task Force on Modelling Methods. The Task Force, which was responsible for producing a set of seven papers covering all aspects of modelling methods applied to medical decision making and health technology assessment. He is also the author of two successful textbooks, one published by OUP entitled Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation, and another published by Wiley entitled Statistical Methods for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
In addition to his role at the University of Glasgow, he also serves as Editor of the journal Health Economics, Associate Editor for the journal Medical Decision Making, and is on the editorial board of Value in Health.
Andrew Davies, MSc
ICON Health Economics & Epidemiology
Principal, Health Economics
