ESTIMATED HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF IMMUNIZATION AGAINST VACCINE-PREVENTABLE DISEASES RELATED TO TEN ANTIGENS IN 73 COUNTRIES DURING THE DECADE OF VACCINES (2011-2020)

Purpose: Economic benefits achieved through health interventions are essential to consider in policy decisions. Although immunizations are recognized as fundamental to reduction in child morbidity and mortality worldwide, the indirect economic benefits of these programs are not always readily apparent. This analysis estimates the health and economic benefits of childhood immunizations against vaccine-preventable diseases related to ten antigens in 73 GAVI eligible countries, which can be used by policymakers to illustrate the impact of immunization.

Method: Health impact data, based on modeled projections of cases and deaths averted for each vaccine considered in the analysis, were incorporated into an Excel-based cost-of-illness model. This model uses cost and treatment parameters of vaccine-preventable diseases associated with ten antigens, including Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, rotavirus, measles, meningococcal A, yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, and rubella. The model produces estimates of treatment cost savings, productivity losses due to death and disability averted, and the value of lives saved from expanding the delivery of life-saving vaccines in 73 GAVI countries during the ‘Decade of Vaccines’ (2011-2020). Parameter inputs were abstracted from published literature and other public data sources, and were validated by clinical and epidemiological experts. All cost estimates are discounted to the baseline year of the analysis (2010) using a 3% discount rate. Vaccine introductions and coverage projections are based on GAVI Secretariat’s Strategic Demand Forecast version nine. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out on key parameters using a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a 95% uncertainty range.

Result: We estimate that implementation of these vaccination programs from 2011-2020 would result in $3 billion in treatment cost savings. Lifetime productivity gains from averting morbidity were estimated at $6 billion and lost caretaker wages averted at $603 million. These benefits accrue from preventing 262 million childhood illnesses, with an additional $168 billion in productivity gains from preventing 12 million child deaths. The total economic benefit in all 73 GAVI countries is estimated at $179 billion. Further analyses including uncertainty ranges will be presented at the conference. 

Conclusion: This analysis highlights the major economic benefits made possible by improving immunization coverage, and the subsequent reductions in death and disability. The results present the broader value and benefits of vaccines at the regional and global level.